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Five Articles on College Graduates: Outlook, Earnings, and More U.S. Department of Labor
Fall 1998 |
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Trends in College Degrees by Jonathan W. Kelinson More people this decade than ever before are getting their college degrees. According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), over 1.6 million bachelor's or higher degrees were conferred by the Nation's colleges and universities in academic year 1994-95, the latest year for which data are available. Population growth contributes to the increase, but a comparison of the recent data with those from more than a decade earlier reveals trends in college degrees by educational level and field of study and by college enrollment characteristics. This article examines trends based on data for bachelor's, master's, first professional, and doctoral degrees awarded between the 1982-83 and 1994-95 academic years, a span of time for which comparable data are available. The first section looks at trends by educational level and field of study, as well as the number of degrees projected to 2005-06. The second section discusses changes based on sex, college enrollment of recent high school graduates, and age and attendance patterns. Where to find related information is noted at the end. Trends: Past and Projected Between 1982-83 and 1994-95, the number of degrees granted varied by educational level and field of study. The number awarded in some fields declined or grew little at the bachelor's level but increased at the master's or doctoral level or both; in other fields, the reverse was true. Projections of degree awards also differ by educational level. Growth by educational level and field of study. Overall, most of the increase in the total number of college degrees conferred during the 1982-83 to 1994-95 period took place from 1987-88 to 1993-94. However, growth differed by educational level. Over the 1982-83 to 1994-95 period, the number of bachelor's degrees granted rose by 20 percent to nearly 1.2 million. The number of master's degrees increased 37 percent, with all of the growth occurring after 1987. The change in doctoral degree awards, though small in number, increased the fastest among the different educational levels-44 percent-primarily during the late 1980s and the mid-1990s. The small number of first professional degrees (dentistry, medicine, and law) increased only slightly, 4 percent, over the period. Growth in degree awards also varied by field of study at different educational levels. Throughout the 198283 to 1994-95 period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projected favorable job prospects for occupations requiring a bachelor's or higher degree in technical areas, such as computer science or engineering. Yet most of the bachelor's degree majors increasing their share of the total number of degrees granted between 1982-83 and 1994-95 were in nontechnical areas. This includes fields such as psychology, visual and performing arts, and liberal arts and humanities. The number of degrees in areas considered more vocationally oriented, such as business, increased little over the period. The only technical fields that increased their portion of total number of degrees granted were biological and life sciences and health professions. In engineering and physical sciences, the number of degrees decreased significantly. |
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The trends in degree levels for some fields are interesting, especially for those experiencing a growth in employment and favorable projections for future employment. The num-ber of undergraduate degrees in computer-related fields, for example, retreated from 1982-83 to 1994-95. This decrease occurred despite a 3-fold increase between 1982 and 1995 in the number of computer science specialists employed and BLS projections that employment in the field would continue to increase over the next decade. However, the number of master's degrees grew dramatically, nearly doubling from around 5,000 in 1982-83 to more than 10,000 in 1994-95. At the doctoral level, the number more than tripled over the period. Likewise, engineers recorded contrasting trends in degree patterns during the 1982-83 to 1994-95 period. At the undergraduate level, the number of degrees conferred declined nearly 15,000 from its peak of 77,000 in 1984-85. But at the graduate level, the number of engineering degrees increased steadily, especially toward the end of the period, to account for nearly 13,000 new degrees at both the master's and doctoral levels. That growth represents a 50-percent increase in master's degrees, and the doubling of doctoral degrees signals the largest numerical increase at this level for all fields. There were similar trends in awards of business degrees. The number of bachelor's degrees increased to a peak of nearly 257,000 in 1992-93 but then retreated close to the 1982-83 level. Meanwhile, the number of master's degrees in business-which represent almost a quarter of all master's degrees-increased 45 percent. Doctoral degrees increased fairly steadily over the period. The number of undergraduate degrees in health professions, such as nursing and health services administration, declined slightly between 1982-83 and 1988-89, then increased sharply the last few years. The number of master's degrees in health professions, however, increased 83 percent over the period. First professional degrees conferred in health sciences changed little. Pharmacy experienced the largest increase with 2,000, the same number by which dentistry declined. These four dynamic fields are examined here because of the wide variation in degree awards over the 1982-83 to 1994-95 period, especially at the undergraduate level in computer science, engineering, and business and at the graduate level in health professions. While there are many possible reasons for these variations, one reason common to all four fields is job market conditions. Overall, the job market was generally favorable throughout the 1970s for college graduates in technical areas, prompting a disproportionate number of students to major in those fields as undergraduates in hopes of securing good jobs upon graduation. In the early 1980s, however, a technology explosion produced the computer and information technology industries and increased the demand for workers with computer science and engineering backgrounds. Jobs were available for those able to do the work regardless of whether they had completed a rigorous technical program, so more students may have opted to give up technical training for other majors. A similar explanation may apply to business majors at the bachelor's degree level, although without the driving force the information technology boom provided for technology graduates. The perceived advantage of having a bachelor's degree in business might have been sustained over a longer period, until the early 1990s. But with the economy expanding strongly since then, graduates in many different fields now qualify for jobs previously requiring business training. Finally, trends in awards of degrees in health professions may be attributed to changes in the health care industry affecting the job market. The effects of these changes are most notable at the graduate level because of the increased opportunities created for workers with advanced degrees. |
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Degree projections. NCES projections of earned degrees between 1995-96 and 2005-06 show relatively little change over present levels. The number of bachelor's degrees is expected to dip slightly in the next few years, then increase gradually. The number of master's degrees is expected to increase modestly over the period, while the number of doctoral and first professional degrees will remain about the same. Graduate Characteristics In addition to showing trends by degree level and field between 1982-83 and 1994-95, NCES data also reveal trends by student characteristic. Noteworthy characteristics for trend analysis are those of sex, length of time between high school graduation and college enrollment, and age and attendance patterns. These factors suggest a move away from previous college enrollment trends, contributing to more students earning a greater number of degrees. Women graduates. The increases in the number of degrees granted between 1982-83 and 1994-95 are markedly different for men and women. During this period, the total number of degrees earned by women grew 35 percent, compared to a 12percent increase for men. In 1987-88, women received more degrees than men for the first time-695,636 compared to 690,465, a difference of over 5,000. By 1994-95, women earned 122,000 more degrees than men. At the start of the period, the number of both bachelor's and master's degrees awarded to men and women were about equal. But by 199495, women earned about 55 percent of both bachelor's and master's degrees, compared to 45 percent for men. Overall, the number of first professional degrees increased only 4 percent between 1982-83 and 1994-95. But the number of those degrees earned by women increased 42 percent while decreasing 12 percent for men. Women received 40 percent of all professional degrees in 1994-95, compared to 30 percent at the beginning of the period. At the doctoral level, the number and share of degrees earned by women also increased. In 1994-95, women's share of doctoral degrees, less than 40 percent, was slightly lower than the proportion earning first professional degrees. Recent high school graduates. The increase in the proportion of recent high school graduates attending college is another reason the number of degrees conferred expanded between 1982-83 and 1994-95. NCES data show that, a decade after finishing high school, students who enrolled in college immediately afterward were more likely to earn a bachelor's degree than were those who delayed entry. In 1982-83, 51 percent of high school graduates entered a higher education program within 1 year of graduation. And by 199495, this rate increased to 62 percent. Older and part-time students. Another factor expanding the number of college students working toward a degree was a growth in the numbers of students who did not fall within the traditional college age and who did not attend college full time. Traditionally aged college students, those between the ages of 18 and 24, made up the majority of students on college campuses. But the number of older students increased significantly. For example, in 1985, 15 percent of those attending an institution of higher education were older than 35; this proportion had increased to 21 percent by 1994. The number of students enrolling in degree programs parttime stayed at consistently high levels between 1982-83 and 1994-95. In 1982, a large proportion of students-42 percent--enrolled on a part-time basis; by 1994, that share had risen slightly, to 43 percent. Related Information Other articles in this issue of the Quarterly focus on certain aspects of college degrees. In addition, BLS and NCES resources provide more details. Information about degrees awarded by detailed field of study for 1994-95 is available in Occupational Projections and Training Data, 1998 Edition (BLS Bulletin 2501). Completions data and information about changes in the characteristics of college students is available at the NCES Web site: www.ed.gov/NCES/ Jonathan W. Kelinson is an ec mist in the Office of Employment Projections, BLS, (202) 606-5688. |
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Table: College degress
awarded, selected years 1982-83 to 1994-95, and percent change, 1982-83 to
1994-95
* Information on fields of study with fewer than 5,000 degrees conferred in 1982-83 are not shown separately, but are included in the total for all fields. For doctoral degrees, information is not shown separately if fewer than 500 degrees were conferred. ** First professional degrees are the required minimum qualification for entry into some fields. As a result, information for these degrees is included separately from the other degree levels. - Fewer than 500 degrees or less than 0.5 percent. Source: National Center for Education Statistics |
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